The National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), released by BPS this month, documents three shifts in Bekasi Raya household spending. First, mortgage share rose 4.2 percentage points in two years. Second, food share dropped from 36% to 34% even as food inflation stayed above 2.5%. Third, education share held steady at 9.1%. The pattern shows households compressing other spending to defend their KPR payments.
What Susenas Measures and Why It Differs From Bank Data
Susenas samples 1,156 households across Bekasi City and Bekasi Regency in February 2026. Data are collected through face-to-face interviews using COICOP consumption categories. Mortgage share falls under "housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels."
This is a different measurement than what banks use. Banks calculate DSR (Debt Service Ratio) from payslips and registered loan commitments. Susenas captures actual spending based on receipts and recall. The gap arises because Bekasi households mix formal and informal income (boarding-room rent, freelancing, side businesses) — income that doesn't appear on payslips.
For banking DSR context, Bank Indonesia recommends installment-to-income ratio at maximum 30%. FLPP-subsidized KPR allows DSR up to 35%. The Susenas figure of 31.4% shows Bekasi's middle class is operating around the BI ceiling.
Bekasi Household Spending Composition: 2024 vs 2026
| Component | March 2024 | March 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage / rent | 27.2% | 31.4% | +4.2 pp |
| Electricity, water, gas | 5.8% | 6.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Food | 36.1% | 34.0% | -2.1 pp |
| Transport | 11.4% | 10.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Education | 8.9% | 9.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Health | 3.8% | 4.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Other | 6.8% | 4.4% | -2.4 pp |
The most striking part isn't the mortgage share rising — it's where the compression comes from. "Other" (recreation, dining out, non-essential purchases) fell 2.4 pp. Households are sacrificing discretionary spending to make mortgage payments. Over the long run, this pattern erodes household resilience against price shocks.
Three Drivers Behind the Rising Mortgage Share
Driver 1: KPR floating rates that are still high. Even though BI rate has been cut to 4.75%, average Himbara-bank KPR floating rates as of April 2026 still sit at 8.1–9.3%. Buyers who locked in fixed rates in 2022–2023 are now resetting to floating this year.
Driver 2: Primary residential prices in Bekasi up 8% YoY. BI's Residential Property Price Index for Bekasi rose from 110.3 to 119.1 between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. Nominal payment goes up without the home getting bigger.
Driver 3: Real wage growth lagging behind. Real wages for Bekasi's middle class rose 2.8% YoY (BPS), while mortgage costs rose 9%. That 6.2 pp gap directly compresses DSR.
What This Means for Three Buyer Profiles
Profile 1: First-time buyers in 2026
For those planning to close a KPR in the rest of 2026, Susenas data is both warning and road map. A healthy DSR for a first-time buyer should be under 25%, not 30 or 35%. The difference matters: if one spouse loses their job or a side business goes dry for three months, that 5–10 pp buffer is what prevents default.
Practical formula for joint income of Rp 12–15 million in Bekasi: maximum payment of Rp 3–3.75 million. At 8.5% floating rate and 15-year tenor, that gives a loan capacity of Rp 305–380 million. A primary house priced at Rp 700 million in Bekasi Utara becomes accessible with a 50% down payment, or by choosing a smaller unit.
Profile 2: Property investors
Susenas confirms tenant purchasing power in Bekasi rental units is under pressure. Gross rental yields in Bekasi Utara Q1 2026 sat at 4.3% per BI — not much buffer if a tenant defaults for 2–3 months. Investors should prioritize locations with corporate demand (near industrial estates like MM2100, Jababeka) where tenants are more stable than speculative locations.
Profile 3: Upgraders (sell first home, buy a larger one)
Safest upgrader strategy in 2026: sell first, then buy. Avoid bridging KPR — the cost is high and it compresses DSR. If your old home has appreciated 30% since signing, use half the capital gain as down payment so the new mortgage doesn't push spending share higher.
2026 DSR benchmarks: 25% for first-time buyers, 28% for upgraders, 30% for investors. Above those numbers, one small shock (job loss, serious illness, an extra vehicle loan) can trigger payment trouble.
Mitigation Strategies for DSR Pressure
- Lock in a 5-year fixed rate before BI raises rates again. Banks like BCA, Mandiri, and BTN offered 6.5–7.5% 5-year fixed rates in May 2026. After September, those tend to disappear.
- Negotiate a KPR takeover after 2–3 years. New banks regularly offer takeover deals with lower rates. Saves 0.5–1.5 pp.
- Boost down payment before signing. Every extra Rp 50 million in down payment shaves Rp 450–520 thousand off the monthly bill (15-year tenor, 8% rate).
- Shorter tenor if you can afford it. 10-year tenor carries lower rates than 20-year. Lifetime interest is 30–40% less.
- Don't lever take-home pay to 100%. Keep at least 20% for a 6-month emergency fund and retirement savings.
What's Different at Modern Clusters
For buyers worried by Susenas data, one structural mitigation is to choose a primary unit priced under the Rp 700 million threshold with the government-borne VAT (PPN DTP) scheme. The Emerald 70 House at Kingspoint Residence falls inside the 2026 PPN-gratis ceiling — meaning no 11% PPN added to the mortgage. For buyers already tight on DSR, that VAT exemption saves Rp 50–80 million immediately at signing, equivalent to Rp 480k of monthly payment over 15 years.
The Emerald 70 package starts at Rp 5 million per month, which — compared to similar units elsewhere in Bekasi Utara — provides a 3–4 pp DSR buffer. Not a game-changer, but enough to move a Rp 15-million-income household from the red zone into the safe zone.
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